{"id":273427,"date":"2026-10-17T01:31:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T22:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aftoforo.com\/an-earthquake-is-coming-to-eurozone-after-greece-market-dictatorship-will-crush-france-at-the-mercy-of-debt-for-5-reasons-ecb-disarmed\/"},"modified":"2026-10-18T08:18:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T05:18:28","slug":"an-earthquake-is-coming-to-eurozone-after-greece-market-dictatorship-will-crush-france-at-the-mercy-of-debt-for-5-reasons-ecb-disarmed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aftoforo.com\/en\/an-earthquake-is-coming-to-eurozone-after-greece-market-dictatorship-will-crush-france-at-the-mercy-of-debt-for-5-reasons-ecb-disarmed\/","title":{"rendered":"An earthquake is coming to Eurozone: After Greece, market dictatorship will crush France &#8211; At the mercy of debt for 5 reasons, ECB disarmed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"content_ad_under_title\" style=\"display:none;margin:10px 0 20px 0;font-weight: bold;text-align: center;padding: 17px\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"news-image\">\n<figure class=\"image-wrapper\">\n                                    \t\t\t\t\t                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bankingnews.gr\/media\/k2\/items\/cache\/2b8b3e2577fc2231bd6d470847f4fcba_XL.jpg?v=3\" alt=\"An earthquake is coming to Eurozone: After Greece, market dictatorship will crush France - At the mercy of debt for 5 reasons, ECB disarmed\"><\/p>\n<figure>\n                                <\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article_text_container\">\n<div class=\"article_text_in\">\n<div class=\"itemIntroText\">\n<p>                                            <b>Economic and political Armageddon in Europe, Which states will follow in the spread of the debt crisis<\/b>                                        <\/div>\n<div class=\"inVideo\" style=\"text-align: center\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"itemFullText\">\n<p>Earlier this month, something occurred in the bond market that had not been seen for over a decade, concerning one of the most important countries in the world.<br \/><b>France<\/b> is not some peripheral economy, as was <b>Greece<\/b>, and is preparing to clash with debt markets as the slide toward the cliff is, according to all indications, unavoidable.<br \/>With public debt approaching 3.6 trillion euros, <b>France<\/b> owes more than any other nation in the Union, including <b>Italy<\/b> and <b>Germany<\/b>.<br \/>When <b>Greece<\/b> reached the brink of bankruptcy in <b>2010<\/b>, threatening to drag down the entire <b>Eurozone<\/b>, its public debt stood at roughly 330 billion euros.<br \/>The markets imposed their discipline on a small and shallow economy, now the stakes are higher.<br \/>While French society expresses its fury through the youth movement over two decades of neoliberal policies, markets lurk to enforce new terms of social cohesion without any democratic legitimacy.<br \/>French debt is almost tenfold.<br \/>At the same time, the European Stability Mechanism (<b>ESM<\/b>), the rescue fund of the <b>Eurozone<\/b>, has a maximum lending capacity of 500 billion euros, meaning weapons against the&#8230; market hawks are limited.<br \/>The rescue mechanism created by <b>Europe<\/b> following the previous crisis was not designed to manage an economic crisis in a country with the scale of the French economy.<br \/>On <b>October 2<\/b>, the yield spread between ten-year government bonds of <b>France<\/b> and <b>Germany<\/b> surged to approximately 150 basis points.<br \/>This constitutes the widest spread since the <b>Eurozone<\/b> debt crisis in <b>2011<\/b>, when <b>Greece<\/b>, <b>Italy<\/b>, and <b>Spain<\/b> were on the verge of financial collapse.<br \/>Today, French bonds trade at higher yields than Italian bonds, whose spread over German debt stands at roughly 90 basis points, and also higher than Greek bonds, where the corresponding difference is roughly 76 basis points.<br \/>In other words, bond markets now view the second-largest economy in the <b>Eurozone<\/b> as a riskier borrower than <b>Greece<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p><b>The spike in French bond yields<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"image\/%CE%A3%CF%84%CE%B9%CE%B3%CE%BC%CE%B9%CF%8C%CF%84%CF%85%CF%80%CE%BF_%CE%BF%CE%B8%CF%8C%CE%BD%CE%B7%CF%82_2026-10-17_142949.png\" alt=\"\u03a3\u03c4\u03b9\u03b3\u03bc\u03b9\u03cc\u03c4\u03c5\u03c0\u03bf_\u03bf\u03b8\u03cc\u03bd\u03b7\u03c2_2026-10-17_142949.png\" width=\"1089\" height=\"1061\"><\/p>\n<p>And matters are becoming even more alarming.<br \/>On <b>October 8<\/b>, investment-grade corporate bonds of French enterprises, with a total value of roughly 215 billion euros, offered lower yields than corresponding French government bonds.<br \/>Investors preferred, in other words, to lend to French companies rather than the French state itself.<br \/>Since then, the yield difference has narrowed somewhat.<br \/>Last Friday (<b>October 9<\/b>) it stood at roughly 132 basis points.<br \/>The problems of <b>France<\/b> are structural, and the country possesses no realistic way to resolve them.<\/p>\n<p><b>Let us start with the numbers<\/b><\/p>\n<p>At the end of the second quarter of <b>2026<\/b>, the public debt of <b>France<\/b> approached 3.6 trillion euros, at 119 percent of <b>GDP<\/b>.<br \/>This marks the highest level since <b>1946<\/b>, when the country was attempting to rebuild following World War II.<br \/>Forecasts from the French budget itself indicate that public debt will reach 121.7 percent of <b>GDP<\/b> next year.<br \/>The fiscal deficit of <b>France<\/b> is projected to reach 5.4 percent of <b>GDP<\/b> this year, one of the highest in the <b>European Union<\/b>.<br \/>The last time <b>France<\/b> balanced its budget was in <b>1973<\/b>, when the President of the <b>US<\/b> was <b>Richard Nixon<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p><b>The trajectory of French public debt<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"image\/%CE%A3%CF%84%CE%B9%CE%B3%CE%BC%CE%B9%CF%8C%CF%84%CF%85%CF%80%CE%BF_%CE%BF%CE%B8%CF%8C%CE%BD%CE%B7%CF%82_2026-10-17_143037.png\" alt=\"\u03a3\u03c4\u03b9\u03b3\u03bc\u03b9\u03cc\u03c4\u03c5\u03c0\u03bf_\u03bf\u03b8\u03cc\u03bd\u03b7\u03c2_2026-10-17_143037.png\" width=\"888\" height=\"903\"><\/p>\n<p>Next year, <b>France<\/b> will borrow a record sum of 340 billion euros, meaning 28 billion more than this year, in order to cover its deficit and refinance maturing debt.<br \/>And the servicing cost of this debt is climbing at a rapid pace.<br \/>Interest payments required of the French state are projected to increase from 64.8 billion euros this year to 74.2 billion euros in <b>2027<\/b>.<br \/>Interest on public debt now represents the single largest expenditure of the state budget, surpassing even expenditures on education.<br \/>Here lies a crucial detail that many analysts overlook.<br \/>The average maturity of French public debt is roughly eight and a half years.<br \/>This means that bonds issued at near-zero interest rates during the <b>2010s<\/b> and early <b>2020s<\/b> are gradually being refinanced at today&#8217;s, much higher rates.<br \/>In plain terms, <b>France<\/b> already faces years of rising debt-servicing costs ahead, and the full burden has not yet materialized.<\/p>\n<p><b>Why France cannot escape the debt trap: The 5 reasons<\/b><\/p>\n<p>First, it cannot print its own money.<br \/>The Bank of France does not independently determine the monetary policy of the country.<br \/>That falls within the competence of the European Central Bank (<b>ECB<\/b>).<br \/>When the <b>US<\/b> or <b>Japan<\/b> confront a debt crisis, their central banks can purchase government bonds, containing yields.<br \/><b>France<\/b>, just like <b>Greece<\/b>, abandoned that capability upon adopting the euro.<br \/>The <b>ECB<\/b> does indeed possess an instrument designed for such situations.<br \/>It is termed the Transmission Protection Instrument (<b>TPI<\/b>) and permits the <b>ECB<\/b> to purchase bonds of a member state when yield spreads widen for reasons unjustified by economic fundamentals.<br \/>There is, however, an important limitation: to qualify, a country must comply with <b>EU<\/b> fiscal rules.<br \/><b>France<\/b> has been under an excessive deficit procedure since <b>July 2024<\/b>.<br \/>This means it does not satisfy one of the core criteria considered for activating this specific mechanism.<br \/>The <b>TPI<\/b> has never been used, and no member of the <b>ECB<\/b> governing council has signaled its activation for <b>France<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>Second, it cannot cut spending without severe political cost.<\/p>\n<p>Prime Minister <b>S\u00e9bastien Lecornu<\/b> heads a fragile minority government.<br \/>On <b>October 1<\/b>, he presented a budget for <b>2027<\/b> projecting spending cuts and revenue-raising measures totaling 43 billion euros, aiming to cap the deficit at 5 percent of <b>GDP<\/b>.<br \/><b>S\u00e9bastien Lecornu<\/b> himself warned that, without spending cuts, the deficit for <b>2027<\/b> could approach 6.5 percent of <b>GDP<\/b>.<br \/>Passing this budget through the French parliament, however, is an entirely different matter.<br \/>Public sector employees have already staged strike action over a proposed wage freeze.<br \/>Last year, the government agreed to suspend the pension reform of <b>Emmanuel Macron<\/b> in order to remain in power. This development contributed to the downgrade of the credit rating of <b>France<\/b> by <b>S&amp;P<\/b> to A+.<br \/><b>Fitch<\/b> had already downgraded the country to the same tier a month earlier.<br \/>And there is, of course, the political factor&#8230;<br \/><b>France<\/b> holds presidential elections next year, and opinion polls indicate that <b>Marine Le Pen<\/b> will prevail.<br \/>Few politicians will want to campaign promising cuts to pensions and healthcare, in a country where public spending accounts for more than half of <b>GDP<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>Third, it cannot tax its economy indefinitely to paper over the problem.<br \/><b>France<\/b> already maintains one of the highest tax burdens in the developed world.<br \/>This year&#8217;s budget relied, among other things, on windfall taxes on very high incomes, large corporations, and family holding companies.<br \/>There is, however, a limit to how much further you can tax your economy before capital, businesses, and specialized human talent begin to leave.<\/p>\n<p>Fourth, it cannot grow fast enough to outgrow the problem.<br \/>The Bank of France projects growth of just 0.5 percent for this year.<br \/>With such anemic growth and a budget deficit above 5 percent of <b>GDP<\/b>, public debt expands faster than the economy tasked with servicing it.<\/p>\n<p>Fifth, <b>France<\/b> does not control who holds its debt.<br \/>Nearly 57 percent of French public debt is held by non-residents.<br \/>Foreign investors feel no political or emotional allegiance toward <b>Paris<\/b>.<br \/>If they determine that the risk is no longer worth the return, they sell French bonds.<br \/>Every sale puts upward pressure on yields. This elevates borrowing costs, worsens the fiscal equation, and can trigger further sales.<br \/>A vicious cycle that risks becoming self-reinforcing.<br \/>Thus, the weight of the final verdict shifts to the bond markets.<\/p>\n<p><b>Why France struggles to deal with its debt<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>France<\/b> will not necessarily be the last.<br \/><b>France<\/b> represents one of the first major developed economies where bond markets appear to be increasingly pricing in the likelihood that existing public debt cannot be meaningfully reduced under current terms.<br \/>Across the developed world, governments spent the past 15 years running large deficits, on the assumption that interest rates would stay near zero forever.<br \/>That era has ended.<br \/>The massive bubble that inflated in previous years across a broad range of markets and asset classes is now beginning to burst in the sovereign bond market of countries such as the <b>US<\/b> and <b>Japan<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"image\/%CE%A3%CF%84%CE%B9%CE%B3%CE%BC%CE%B9%CF%8C%CF%84%CF%85%CF%80%CE%BF_%CE%BF%CE%B8%CF%8C%CE%BD%CE%B7%CF%82_2026-10-17_143117.png\" alt=\"\u03a3\u03c4\u03b9\u03b3\u03bc\u03b9\u03cc\u03c4\u03c5\u03c0\u03bf_\u03bf\u03b8\u03cc\u03bd\u03b7\u03c2_2026-10-17_143117.png\" width=\"1088\" height=\"1103\"><\/p>\n<p><b>Will the ECB not save France? The dangerous gamble of bond markets<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>France<\/b> cannot take for granted that the European Central Bank will intervene to save it. And this is perhaps the greatest risk for <b>Paris<\/b>, as well as for the entire <b>Eurozone<\/b>.<br \/>For years, markets operated under the conviction that if the situation became truly hazardous, the <b>ECB<\/b> would ultimately find a way to intervene.<br \/>The crisis of <b>2012<\/b>, when then <b>ECB<\/b> President <b>Mario Draghi<\/b> pledged to do \u00abwhatever it takes\u00bb to save the euro, cemented this view.<br \/>Investors learned to rely on the presence of a powerful institutional backstop against sovereign debt crises.<br \/>Today, however, the situation is different.<br \/>The <b>ECB<\/b> possesses the Transmission Protection Instrument (<b>TPI<\/b>), which allows it to purchase sovereign bonds when it establishes that financial conditions are deteriorating unjustifiably and threatening the smooth transmission of monetary policy. However, its activation is neither automatic nor a guaranteed right of any government.<br \/>And herein lies the crux of the problem for <b>France<\/b>.<br \/>The country is under an excessive deficit procedure within the framework of European fiscal rules.<br \/>This condition complicates its eligibility for the <b>TPI<\/b>, as the <b>ECB<\/b> examines, among other things, fiscal compliance, public debt sustainability, and the economic policies of the country that might require support.<br \/>In other words, <b>France<\/b> cannot take for granted that <b>Frankfurt<\/b> will step in at the critical hour to contain its bond yields.<br \/>There is also another reason why such an intervention is far from simple.<br \/>The mandate of the <b>ECB<\/b> is not to finance governments struggling to control their budget deficits.<br \/>Its primary objective is maintaining price stability, while the use of its available instruments is subject to specific preconditions.<br \/>If the rise in French yields reflects genuine concerns over the fiscal trajectory of the country rather than unjustified market turbulence, the <b>ECB<\/b> will have fewer grounds to intervene via the <b>TPI<\/b>. Such a move could be interpreted as rewarding fiscal laxity and provoke pushback from countries demanding strict adherence to European rules.<\/p>\n<p><b>Why Greece should be concerned<\/b><\/p>\n<p>For <b>Greece<\/b>, the issue is particularly critical.<br \/>The Greek economy experienced firsthand what happens when markets lose confidence in a sovereign&#8217;s ability to service its debt.<br \/>A potential crisis in <b>France<\/b>, however, would carry different dimensions.<br \/>It would not involve a relatively small peripheral economy, but one of the largest economies in <b>Europe<\/b>, playing a decisive role in the political and economic architecture of the <b>Eurozone<\/b>.<br \/>If the <b>ECB<\/b> does not intervene and market pressure mounts, turbulence could spread to other countries as well.<br \/>Investors may reassess risk across the entire <b>Eurozone<\/b>, demanding higher yields from states they view as more vulnerable.<br \/><b>Greece<\/b> would not automatically be the next target.<br \/>However, a renewed crisis of confidence in the European sovereign bond market could raise borrowing costs, complicate fiscal management, and restrict economic policy leeway.<br \/>The most significant lesson is that <b>ECB<\/b> intervention cannot be taken for granted either for <b>France<\/b> or for any other country in the <b>Eurozone<\/b>.<br \/>The question is not solely whether <b>Paris<\/b> will succeed in curbing its debt.<br \/><b>Europe<\/b> is not expected to be able to prevent a new crisis without testing the very rules upon which the euro is founded, and markets will subjugate the second-largest economy.<\/p>\n<p>www.bankingnews.gr<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"article_toolbox_container\">\n<div class=\"article_toolbox_in\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"text-link\" style=\"text-align:center;font-weight:bold;margin-top:10px;background-color:#e4e4e4a1;font-size:18px\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economic and political Armageddon in Europe, Which states will follow in the spread of the debt crisis<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":273429,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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