ΕλλάδαScenarios of a fresh financial shock and estimates of new historical records in gold prices through 2028 are causing intense concern among investors, at a time when anxieties over public finances, the dollar’s credibility, and global financial system stability are mounting. Simultaneously, central banks are building defenses by strengthening their gold positions, with precious metal purchases in September reaching their highest monthly level since November 2024.
Forecasts for new gold records
According to investor estimates, gold prices are expected to chart new historical highs within the next 24 months, while data indicates that central bank gold purchases in September reached their highest level in nearly two years. According to preliminary data from the World Gold Council, recorded purchases so far stand at roughly 63 tons. Figures were compiled by the organization, which represents the gold industry, based on data from central banks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Gold recorded an all-time high, surpassing $5,500 per ounce in January, following an explosive price rally. Although it has since retreated significantly, the precious metal continues trading at historically elevated levels. Fund managers estimate gold prices will trend upward over the medium and long term as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and uncertainty across the economy and financial markets. Speaking at the Financial Times Precious Metals Conference, Charlotte Yonge of Troy Asset Management predicted gold will achieve a new all-time high within the next 12 to 18 months. As she noted, gold represents the ideal risk hedge against worsening public finance conditions, pointing to the explosive growth of US national debt and expectations that central banks globally will once again expand the money supply “the next time we enter a recession.” “Gold cannot be printed in the same way,” she added.
Heading toward a new financial shock
Concurrently, Paul Carne of Aon Investments stated that gold prices will record new historical highs within the next two years. “When you weaponize the dollar… you shouldn’t be surprised when people stop using it. What will they use in its place?” he remarked, referring to gold while citing US economic policy. Peter Marrone, chairman and CEO of mining company Allied Gold, stated that investors should ask themselves whether “we are at the beginning of a financial crisis.” “It seems to me that we are on the threshold of a financial event,” he noted. Marrone added that family offices are significantly increasing their gold allocations as the macroeconomic environment grows more volatile, diversifying their portfolios and shunning government bonds in favor of the precious metal. Ian Cockerill of Endeavor Mining highlighted that gold prices are supported by the macroeconomic climate, loss of confidence in fiat currencies unbacked by physical assets, and central bank concerns regarding how to protect currency value. “That serves as a very strong floor for gold prices,” he stated. “I don’t know if $4,000 constitutes the absolute floor. But if it isn’t, it is very close to it ahead of the next upward leg in gold prices,” he added.
Robust demand from central banks
Suki Cooper of Standard Chartered stated that central bank demand for gold remains “very strong.” However, some central banks engaged in sales earlier this year as certain nations sought to raise cash following the outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran. Emerging market institutional investors desire an alternative reserve currency to the US dollar, with gold viewed as the most probable choice compared to other fiat currencies like the euro or the yen, Yonge noted. Industry executives stated they anticipate an increase in central bank gold purchases as markets lose confidence in the greenback and increasingly search for viable alternatives. The People’s Bank of China continues to bolster its gold reserves in recent months. According to World Gold Council data, the Chinese central bank’s gold holdings now account for 9% of its total reserves, standing at approximately 2,410 tons.
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